Multivariate Forecasting of Domestic Rescada Copra Prices in the Philippines

Date

8-2022

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Economics

College

College of Economics and Management (CEM)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Veronica I. Castillo

Committee Member

Luisito C. Abueg Veronica I. Castillo Gideon P. Carnaje Agham C. Cuevas

Abstract

Evidence from previous literature indicates that there is minimal importance placed on forecasting the price of copra in the Philippines. To date, there is no existing literature focused on copra price forecasting that accounts for the supply and demand factors. This study attempts to identify the factors affecting the domestic price of copra in the Philippines and forecast prices using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variable (ARIMAX) model. Monthly data from 20 I 0-2020 of copra prices, copra export volume, exchange rate, presence of cocolisap, and covid I 9 duration were used in the time series. Findings indicate that the cocolisap to be a major factor affecting the price of copra, which can be linked to the supply. The price of palm kernel oil is also a significant factor with it being a substitute good for the primary output of copra. The results of the study point toward reorienting government efforts. Firstly, prioritize securing a consistent supply via investments in pest resilient trees in order to circumvent another possible pest outbreak. Secondly, strengthen domestic demand for coconuts and coconut byproducts by expediting the implementation of the Biofules Act of 2006 which mandates a 5% blend of Coco Methyl Ester.

Language

English

LC Subject

Price forecasting, ARIMAX, Copra, Coconut, Cocolisap, Palm kernel oil

Location

UPLB College of Economics and Management (CEM)

Call Number

LG 993.5 2022 E2 R67

Document Type

Thesis

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