Analysis of Carrot Prices in the Philippines, 1990-2018

Date

2-2020

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Agricultural Economics

College

College of Economics and Management (CEM)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Cesar B. Quicoy

Committee Member

Cesar B. Quicoy, Antonio Jesus A. Quilloy, Agham C. Cuevas

Abstract

The general objective of this study was to analyze the price of carrots in the Philippines from 1990 to 2018. Specifically, it analyzed the trends and growths present in domestic production, area harvested, and domestic price of carrot; analyzed seasonal price variation of carrot, determined the price spread of carrot, and determined the price transmission of carrot from one market level to another.

The analytical procedures utilized for this study was involved understanding the behavior of growths and trends of important aspects (land area harvested, production volume and prices), seasonality of prices, and relationships among market levels (farmgate, wholesale, and retail) and among regional and national markets. Growth was measured and analyzed through growth rates while trends were analyzed through the Least Squares Method. For seasonality, ratio to moving average was implemented. Price spreads were measured to assess performance of each market level. Ravallion model and Index of Market Connections was used to study the short-run level of integration of market levels. Engle- Granger Co-integration and Granger Causality test were conducted to measure the long- run degree of integration and the direction of influence among market levels and between regional and national markets.

Land area harvested, production volume and prices at different market levels exhibited a positive growth rate. The trend for area harvested and volume of production both showed an exponentially increasing while prices at different market levels exhibited a polynomial in nature function. In terms of seasonality, farmgate prices were observed to be highest in July and lowest at March. Wholesale prices were observed to be highest at July and lowest in March. Lastly, retail prices were reported to be highest in July and lowest in February. There was low degree of integration observed at the short-run level. In the long run level, collinearity was observed between farmgate and wholesale data which was resolved through regression analysis that observed a positive relationship between farmgate and wholesale. As for wholesale and retail, it was observed that wholesale was influencing the retail prices. At the farmgate level, only CAR was significantly related to the national market. At wholesale, more regions influence the national price with only Region VII being influenced by the national average. At retail level, regional influence to the national price is more dispersed.

It was recommended that land preservation and programs to encourage carrot farming be implemented as area harvested directly affects supply and indirectly the prices. The overwhelming influence of CAR should be subjected to further study and priority in policies aiming to influence farmgate level. Implementation of post-harvest technologies for preservation is recommended to minimize price fluctuations. A more in-depth study of the retail level is suggested to ascertain market imperfections that possibly exist inferred through the increasing price spread. Regions I, II, V, VI, VII, IX, NCR, CAR, and ARMM take precedence over other regions for policies on a wholesale level. For the retail level, Regions I, II, III, IV-A, V, VI, VII, and VIII should be prioritized for policies and programs.

Language

English

LC Subject

Agriculture

Location

UPLB College of Economics and Management (CEM)

Call Number

LG 993.5 2020 A14 C355

Document Type

Thesis

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