Effects of the National Food Authority's palay procurement, importation, and distribution on National Rice Prices, 1990- 2010.

Date

10-2012

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Agricultural Economics

College

College of Economics and Management (CEM)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Quilloy, Antonio Jesus A.

Abstract

Since 1972, the National Food Authority (NFA) has been implementing its procurement, importation, and distribution programs in order to stabilize rice prices. A 20-year monthly time series dataset (1990 to 2010) constituting of wholesale and farmgate palay prices, and volumes of palay procurement, importation, and distribution of the NFA was analyzed to determine if the above mentioned significantly affected the trend in palay prices at the national level. After removing seasonal trends in palay prices, the deseasonalized prices were regressed against NFA’s palay procurement, importation, and distribution volumes, using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. The study finds that the NFA price stabilization programs had statistically insignificant effects on the monthly variation in rice prices, hence possibly minimal effect on rice prices. On the whole, the trend analysis revealed that, from 1990 to 2010, large volumes of palay were procured during the months of October to December. Significant volume of rice was imported during May to November of every year. Finally, rice distribution was mostly done during the planting period of July to August. Procurement, importation, and distribution volumes were increasing from 1990- 2010. Farmgate and wholesale prices were increasing from January to July and decreasing from July to December. Analysis of price seasonality indicates that there is a high degree of seasonal price variation for rice at the wholesale and farmgate levels. At the wholesale and farmgate levels, the regression results showed that palay procurement negatively affects rice prices. Importation, on the other hand, increases rice prices. Finally, rice distribution has no effect on rice prices.

Language

English

Location

UPLB College of Economics and Management

Call Number

Thesis

Document Type

Thesis

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