Quantitative risk analysis and contigency estimation of DPWH standard three storey school building using Monte Carlo Simulation.
Date
6-2016
Degree
Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering
College
College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology (CEAT)
Adviser/Committee Chair
Kimjay M. Lamar
Restrictions
Restricted: Not available to the general public. Access is available only after consultation with author/thesis adviser and only to those bound by the confidentiality agreement.
Abstract
Cost overrun - increase of project cost exceeding the approved budget, is one of the most common problems in construction projects due to the presence of risks or unforeseen events which may positively or negatively affect the project objectives. An effective decision on setting contingency based on the probabilistic risk analysis is added to cost estimates to account for these inevitable events. However, DPWH, which sets the ceiling price for school projects bids, estimates contingency of their project cost deterministically. With this, the probabilistic efforts of risks were not considered. In this study, using Monte Carlo Simulation through Crystal Ball, the project cost estimate of DPWH for 15-classroom three-storey school building design was subjected to quantitative risk analysis. From the interview with DPWH project engineer for school building contruction, 14 location-based threats were identified and factors of each was assigned based on its probability and impact. After running 5000 realizations, results of the analysis showed that DPWH's current budget contingency is only at 0.41% level of confidence. In other words, there is 99.59% certainty that the project will experience cost overrun. Furthermore, the level of confidence of DPWH's deterministic allotment of contingency is significantly far from the minimum acceptable confidence level, 50%. Thus, it was concluded that risks should be quantitativelt analyzed to generate a more comprehensive estimate.
Language
English
Location
UPLB College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology (CEAT)
Call Number
LG 993.5 2016 E63 /M35
Recommended Citation
Maligaya, Jennilyn C., "Quantitative risk analysis and contigency estimation of DPWH standard three storey school building using Monte Carlo Simulation." (2016). Undergraduate Theses. 5455.
https://www.ukdr.uplb.edu.ph/etd-undergrad/5455
Document Type
Thesis