Quantitative risk analysis and contigency estimation of DPWH standard three storey school building using Monte Carlo Simulation.

Date

6-2016

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering

College

College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology (CEAT)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Kimjay M. Lamar

Restrictions

Restricted: Not available to the general public. Access is available only after consultation with author/thesis adviser and only to those bound by the confidentiality agreement.

Abstract

Cost overrun - increase of project cost exceeding the approved budget, is one of the most common problems in construction projects due to the presence of risks or unforeseen events which may positively or negatively affect the project objectives. An effective decision on setting contingency based on the probabilistic risk analysis is added to cost estimates to account for these inevitable events. However, DPWH, which sets the ceiling price for school projects bids, estimates contingency of their project cost deterministically. With this, the probabilistic efforts of risks were not considered. In this study, using Monte Carlo Simulation through Crystal Ball, the project cost estimate of DPWH for 15-classroom three-storey school building design was subjected to quantitative risk analysis. From the interview with DPWH project engineer for school building contruction, 14 location-based threats were identified and factors of each was assigned based on its probability and impact. After running 5000 realizations, results of the analysis showed that DPWH's current budget contingency is only at 0.41% level of confidence. In other words, there is 99.59% certainty that the project will experience cost overrun. Furthermore, the level of confidence of DPWH's deterministic allotment of contingency is significantly far from the minimum acceptable confidence level, 50%. Thus, it was concluded that risks should be quantitativelt analyzed to generate a more comprehensive estimate.

Language

English

Location

UPLB College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology (CEAT)

Call Number

LG 993.5 2016 E63 /M35

Document Type

Thesis

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