Analysis of seasonality in monthly pork prices in the Philippines based on X-12 arima

Abstract

© 2017, International Society for Southeast Asian Agricultural Sciences. All rights reserved. Seasonal movements in prices are assumed to be predictable as they are expected to recur within one year periods. The study aimed to capture seasonality in monthly prices of pork in the Philippines in order to reveal underlying cyclical and trend movements in the economy. Secondary data on nominal monthly price series of pork at the national level covering the period 1990–2016 used were obtained from the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) CountryStat website. The X-12 ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) method was used to seasonally adjust the monthly farm gate and retail prices of pork in the Philippines. Results show that both price series exhibited clear upward trends and normal irregular variations. F-tests for the presence of seasonality also revealed that monthly farm gate and retail prices of pork present stable seasonality along with moving seasonality at 1% level of probability. Trading day and leap year effects were found to be insignificant.

Source or Periodical Title

Journal of the International Society for Southeast Asian Agricultural Sciences

ISSN

8593132

Page

215-226

Document Type

Article

Subject

Irregular component, Seasonality, Trend-cycle, X-12 ARIMA

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