Development of weather-based empirical forecasting models of tomato leaf curl disease in Northern Mindanao, Philippines

Issue Date

12-2020

Abstract

Tomato leaf curl is a major virus disease in the Philippines. This study was conducted to develop and validate tomato leaf curl empirical forecasting models in Northern Mindanao. Tomato leaf curl disease incidence (%) and index (%) were assessed and number of whiteflies was counted per plant every two weeks after transplanting in the 2018 dry and wet seasons in field experiments in two sites: Malaybalay, Bukidnon and Claveria, Misamis Oriental. The relationships of disease incidence and index with whitefly number and biweekly-averaged weather variables were analyzed using linear correlation analysis. Disease incidence and index were positively correlated with minimum, maximum and average temperatures, but were positively and negatively correlated with relative humidity (RH), wind speed and rainfall in different sites and seasons. Whitefly number was negatively correlated with disease incidence and index in specific sites and seasons. Using stepwise multiple linear regression analyses, empirical models were developed that included temperature, RH, rainfall, wind speed and whitefly number that explained 90-94% of the variation in disease incidence. Multiple linear regression models specific to site and season were evaluated as good predictive models based on low average prediction error (MDIFF), and narrow length of prediction error (LPE).

Source or Periodical Title

Journal of the International Society for Southeast Asian Agricultural Sciences

ISSN

0859-3132

Volume

26

Issue

2

Page

158-169

Document Type

Article

Physical Description

graphs; map; tables; references

Language

English

Subject

Correlation analysis, Multiple linear regression, Whitefly

Digital Copy

yes

En – AGROVOC descriptors

CORRELATION ANALYSIS; MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION; WHITEFLY

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