Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines

Issue Date

6-2010

Abstract

A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on two scenarios (A1B and A2) from CGCM3 experiment. The annual precipitation change was estimated to be 0.1-9.3% increase for A1B scenario, and -3.3 to 3.3% decrease/increase for the A2 scenario. Difference in the mean temperature between the present and the 2080s were predicted to be 0.6-2.2°C and 0.6-3.0°C under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. The water balance showed that 42% of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into streamflow, and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events leading to high evaporation losses, and decrease in streamflow, while groundwater flow appeared unaffected. A study on the changes in monthly water balance provided insights into the hydrologic changes within the forest watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change. © Indian Academy of Sciences.

Source or Periodical Title

Journal of Earth System Science

ISSN

0253-4126

Volume

119

Issue

3

Page

265-283

Document Type

Article

Physical Description

illustrations, tables, graphs, diagram

Language

English

Subject

BROOK90 model, CGCM3 experiment, Mount makiling forest reserve, Statistical downscaling, Water balance

Identifier

doi:10.1007/s12040-010-0025-6.

Digital Copy

yes

Link to Full Text

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