Frequency analysis of extreme hydrologic events and assessment of water stress in a changing climate in the Philippines
Issue Date
9-2008
Abstract
Changing climate is likely to have profound impacts on society and the environment. Global warming attributed to natural processes and anthropogenic activities significantly affects agricultural production systems and also alters the hydrologic regimes of watersheds. Temporal and spatial distributions of water resources threaten water and food security especially in marginal areas. The disproportionate increase in mean and variance of weather and climatic variables results to more frequent and more intense hydrologic events such as rainfall, typhoons, droughts, etc. which affect the sustainability of agricultural production, food security, water availability, and human welfare. The effects of changing climate on extreme hydrologic events in disaster-prone areas were studied under different climate change scenarios. Frequency analysis of extreme events was performed using available historical records, and probability distributions of best fit. Estimates of recurrence intervals of specified magnitudes of hydrologic extremes and for given return periods are compared. Results show that extreme events are becoming more frequent and more intense with shorter return periods. Moreover, water scarcity under different future periods (2010, 2015, 2025) was analyzed using different water stress indeces based on water resources availability and water use requirements across locations and time periods in the Philippines to determine the vulnerable areas. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group.
Source or Periodical Title
From Headwaters to the Ocean: Hydrological Changes and Watershed Management - Proceedings of the International Conference on Hydrological Changes and Management from Headwaters to the Ocean, HYDROCH
Page
497-501
Document Type
Book Chapter
Language
English
Subject
Extreme events, Frequency analysis, Water scarcity
Recommended Citation
Lansigan, F. (2008). Frequency analysis of extreme hydrologic events and assessment of water stress in a changing climate in the Philippines. In: From Headwaters to the Ocean: Hydrological Changes and Watershed Management - Proceedings of the International Conference on Hydrological Changes and Management from Headwaters to the Ocean, HYDROCH. doi:10.1201/9780203882849.ch74.
Identifier
doi:10.1201/9780203882849.ch74.
Digital Copy
yes