Dynamic modeling of optimal papaya replanting decisions in the Philippines

Issue Date

1-2009

Abstract

The research question addressed in this paper is whether the standard papaya production practices in the Philippines maximize profits given the existing seasonality in prices. We use a dynamic simulation model to identify the profit-maximizing production cycle of the crop under varying price and crop yields for each variety, including a genetically modified version of the Solo papaya. Our simulation results show that if prices are constant throughout the year, the planting month is irrelevant, but the length of a production cycle affects the total net returns over a finite planning horizon. However, if seasonal prices vary significantly within a year, both the planting month and the cycle length do matter in terms of farmers' net incomes.

Source or Periodical Title

Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture

ISSN

498599

Volume

48

Issue

2

Page

155-170

Document Type

Article

Language

English

Subject

Decisions, Dynamic simulation, Genetically modified papaya, Optimal replanting, Philippine papaya varieties

Digital Copy

None

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