Climate change mitigation activities in the Philippine forestry sector: Application of the comap model

Abstract

The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be a major sink for carbon (C). The present study was conducted to evaluate potential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) model. The baseline scenario assumes that current trends continue up to the year 2030 ('business-as-usual', BAU). Two mitigation scenarios were evaluated: high scenario (HS) and low scenario (LS). The former is patterned largely from the government's forest master plan while the latter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan, The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total C stock of the Philippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814 × 106 Mg C, down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The C stocks of the HS and LS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU, respectively, of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantations and forest protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104 × 106 Mg, respectively under HS). The not present value (NPV) of benefits is highest in the bioenergy option with $24.48 per Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a real discount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs are also highest using bioenergy. The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigation scenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263 × 106 while for the HS it is $748 × 106. Finally, policy issues and decisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCF mitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified and discussed.

Source or Periodical Title

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

ISSN

13812386

Page

313-334

Document Type

Article

Subject

Carbon sequestration, Climate change mitigation, Economic analysis, Forestry options

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