School-based Mosquito Abundance Model (SMAM): A public health approach for the protection of children against dengue in the Philippines

Issue Date

10-2017

Abstract

A statistical model that readily predicts mosquito density as indicator of threat of dengue outbreaks in public elementary and high schools in the Philippines is needed. Given the treat of climate change and the association of climate, mosquito density, and dengue incidence, the model is necessary to respond to the major challenges facing dengue prevention and control program of the Philippines. The predictive model is based on actual data estimating mosquito density in schools not requiring active vector surveillance. A theoretical framework of the ovitrap system was utilized and provided the model’s needed inputs to capture the link between mosquito development and its environment. The model is a fixed-effect panel data with seasonal multiplicative autoregressive terms. Data collection was conducted from July 2015 to September 2016 in 21 public elementary and high school selected across six cities representing the four climate types of the Philippines. The overall mean ovitrap index (OI) during the pronounced dry (51.53%) and dry (59.39%) season were lower than that of the wet (63.47%). The model’s prediction performance showed a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 13.09%, noting that the model can more easily predict in areas under climates 2 and 4 with an overall MAPE of 10.01% and 8.71%, respectively. The R-squared value was 74.28% and adjusted R-squared value was 63.61%. these measures indicate that the model is fit to predict monthly OI across climates, and the information on forecasted PIs will facilitate better implementation of vector control programs to prevent dengue outbreaks.

Source or Periodical Title

The Philippine Entomologist

ISSN

0048-3753

Volume

31

Issue

2

Page

169-170

Document Type

Article

Frequency

semi-annually

Language

English

En – AGROVOC descriptors

CULICIDA; DENSITY MEASURING EQUIPMENT; VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES; EPIDEMICS; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE PREVENTION; PHILIPPINES

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