Application of modeling in forecasting dengue mosquito density in Los Baños, Laguna, Phiilippines

Issue Date

10-2014

Abstract

Forecasting of dengue risk based on entomological, climatic and family sociocultural factors was conducted in dengue in endemic barangays in Los Baños, Laguna Province. Data were collected through vector surveillance, interviews and participant observation from 442 households, randomly selected from the total number of households where dengue cases have been reported. Findings indicated that these two models, namely, the classical regression or community model and logistics regression (household) model, can predict for ovitrap positivity. The two models predict the chance of being ovitrap positive and the times it is higher or lower in the presence of the determining factor using factorial analysis. The risk categories include: presence of drums outdoor, pail and dish rack tray, the presence of elementary/high school children at home and absence of curtains or screens in the households. The models also generated estimate which would influence the density of the mosquito population using a mosquito larvicidal trap (MLT), specifically, the Mosquiron Larvicidal Trap (2% Novaluron), an effective mosquito larvicidae which prevents adult emergence. With these proposed models, dengue transmission can be prevented by having a timely application of vector control measures to reduce vector population below threshold levels.

Source or Periodical Title

The Philippine Entomologist

ISSN

0048-3753

Volume

28

Issue

2

Page

220

Document Type

Article

Frequency

semi-annually

Language

English

En – AGROVOC descriptors

DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; FORECASTING; MODELLING; PHILIPPINES

This document is currently not available here.

Share

COinS