Strengthening Philippine Institutional capacity to adapt to climate change outcome 3.1 activity 3.3: component 2A: simplified vulnerability assessment tools combining indigenous and scientific knowledge for agricultural sector in Benguet and Ifugao

Anon.

Date

2023

Abstract

The third component of the study developed a simplified science-indigenous knowledge-based vulnerability assessment tool and adaptation strategies for the upland communities of Benguet and Ifugao. The simplified vulnerabilities assessment tool is an attempt to provide an easy to use guide for identifying vulnerable agricultural areas. Through this tool the vulnerability assessment may be done in a quick but organized manner. This field questionnaire tool being a product to the integration of agricultural variables, often used for describing agricultural systems and designing appropriate interventions, and actual experiences and observations about agriculture in Benguet and Ifugao Province may provide reliable conclusions as to what agricultural areas and communities in the province need immediate and appropriate adaptation measures. A vulnerability Index from 0 to 10, with 10 as the highest vulnerability, was developed to give a comparative evaluation of various areas being assessed. Two approaches were used to determine the optimal planting dates of a crop. The first approach is based on rainfall probabilities. This approach assumes that rainfall is the crop's main source of water. It selects the dates that have the highest probability of meeting the water requirement of the crop at each stage of development. The second approach is based on yield probabilities. The yield probabilities were simulated using DSSAT CERES crop models that have been parameterized for selected crops. and have been validated under local conditions. One of the model inputs is the crop's genetic coefficient. These crop coefficients are already available for limited varieties only. Unfortunately, there are no known crop coefficients yet for rice varieties commonly planted in Ifugao and vegetables commonly planted in Benguet such as lettuce, cauliflower, carrots and beans. Thus, this study is limited to exploring yield simulation of varieties with existing crop coefficient such as IR72 rice variety and Magilis tomato variety. The optimal planting dates for rice were constructed based on rainfall probabilities and yield probabilities of IR72 variety. Although the two methods generally gave different planting dates, they both recommended the last week of August as the optimal planting date of rice in Banaue for a normal year. The optimal planting dates derived based on yield probabilities are more plausible, and therefore, recommended. This is because of the fact the estimated crop yields using eco-physical crop simulation model accounts more for agro-climatic environment and also crop management strategies. The optimal planting dates for tomato were obtained based on the yield probabilities of Magilis variety. Results showed that generally the dates are different for the two adjacent locations namely, Baguio City and La Trinidad except during wet years. These differences may be due to the fact that the number of historical data some normal year in Baguio City are classified wet years in La Trinidad. Thus, these differences in the groupings of historical years available for the two locations differs. Since the classification of years into the three climatic conditions is highly dependent on the available historical years resulted to different recommended planting dates. To understand the weather scenarios for 2020 and 2050 in Baguio City, the historical analogues of these years were determined using four methods. The first two methods which involved the cluster analysis of years failed to find immediate historical analogue. Hence, two methods involving the use of the least average absolute deviation were explored. Results showed that among the 30 historical years considered, 1995 has the closest weather scenario to 2020 and 2050. This implies that during these years, Baguio City is expected to experience an average daily temperature similar to 1995, when highest values of temperature were observed among the 30 historical years. Thus, the recommended planting dates for tomato in 2020 and 2050 will be based from the optimal planting dates of year 1995. It is week 51, that is, during the third week of December.

Language

English

Document Type

Article

Pages /Collation

78 leaves

En – AGROVOC descriptors

ORYZA SATIVA; LYCOPERSICON ESCULENTUM; VARIETIES; CROP YIELD; SIMULATION MODELS; PLANTING DATE; CLIMATIC CHANGE; PHILIPPINES

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