Ex-ante analysis of PCAARRD Industry Strategic S &T plans for mango

Date

2014

Abstract

Mango is one of the most important fruit crops in the country producing a total of 671,861.93mt with a total area planted of 146,425.04 in 2013 according to BAS. Although land area allotted to mango production increased by 26.59% for the period 2003 to 2013, production decreased by 17.39% (BAS). The decrease in production was due to insect pests and diseases, poor nutrition, low adoption of improved technologies, and postharvest losses. Hence the ISP for mango aims to increase the yield to 9.11 mt in 2015 and 11.11mt in 2020 while decreasing postharvest losses to 20% in 2015 and 14% in 2020.There are eight on-going projects under the Mango ISP, three of which are in the capacity building/technology transfer status. These projects involve direct results to the farmers while the other five are still in the research and development status where realization of monetary benefits to the farmer is not yet in sight. Total budget for the mango ISP is PhP69,752,104.98 and the projects are about to end by 2014-2015. Assessing whether these interventions will help to meet the goals will allow decision makers to appreciate whether specific interventions should be modified or even discounted. Hence ex-ante assessment becomes important to make such evaluations of the proposed interventions of these ISPs and to measure the expected economic value of these strategies. This project aims to estimate, to the extent possible, the economic value of the mango ISP using ex-ante assessments to rationalize the use of PCAARRD-DOST [Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development-Department of Science and Technology] funds. Results showed that in terms of yield, the target of the ISP is achievable in project areas. According to the farmers, the project implementers, and experts, yield is expected to increase in the coming years because the trees are being conditioned and the farmers are getting used to the technology. However, the areas allotted to the projects are very small as compared to the total Carabao mango farm area in the project Regions. Therefore, to realize the target yield for the Regions and for the country as a whole, the project must assure the adoption and sustainability of the interventions to other mango growers in the area/region. In terms of the target reduction in post-harvest losses by 20% in 2015, results showed that the losses are still high due to the high incidence of anthracnose and stem-end-rot in some areas. However, reduction of post harvest losses from 40% to 30% can be achieved through bagging and proper handling during picking/harvesting, sorting and packaging. The post harvest losses can be further reduced to 20% through hot water treatment hence the target for 2020 may be achieved. For the whole Mango ISP, net present values of all projects are aggregated. Projects 2,3 and 7 are under technology generation and have no direct effect on incomes of mango growers yet, so the negative net benefit was equivalent to the budget. Using the initial expected outcomes for yield, losses and number of adopters, based on the observations generated during the first year of project intervention, total net present value is positive at PhP287.8 million and IRR is 46%. The first scenario assumes that the target of the project has been achieved. On the other hand, scenario 2 shows lower NPV and IRR. This implies that if the project stops at the initial outputs, project will have lesser benefits. It must be able to sustain and increase benefits further by securing the adoption of the project interventions/technologies.

Language

English

Document Type

Article

Pages /Collation

66 leaves

En – AGROVOC descriptors

MANGOES; MANGIFERA INDICA; VARIETIES; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; PLANT DISEASES; INNOVATION ADOPTION; ECONOMIC VALUE; TECHNOLOGY

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