Dengue outbreak prediction model for the Municipality of Los Baños, Laguna

Date

2019

Adviser

Gregorio Y. Ardales, Jr

Abstract

Dengue is a serious threat to public health. Studies have shown that dengue incidence (DI) is sensitive to meteorological factors (MF) such as relative humidity (RH), rainfall (RR), and temperature. This study aimed to determine the relationship between MF and DI, analyze the monthly incidence of dengue in the different barangays through Geographic Information Systems, and to identify the best model to predict dengue incidence, as affected by MF, in the municipality of Los Baños, Laguna. Monthly RH, RR, mean temperature (Tmean), minimum temperature (Tmin), and maximum temperature (Tmax) obtained from the UPLB - National Agromet Station for the period 2008 to 2017 were analyzed together with monthly DI data, gathered from Los Baños Municipal Health Office using Multiple Correlation Analysis and Standard Multiple Regression (SMR). Two prediction models (PM) were done: Originally-timed (OT) and time-adjusted (TA). Correlation analysis was done to determine the best time-lag for the TA PM. OT Correlation analysis showed that both Tmax and Tmean have inverse significant relationship with DI. On the other hand, Tmin showed weak insignificant correlation with DI and for RR and RH, both are moderately correlated with DI. As for TA correlation analysis, all variables exhibit direct relationship, particularly RR, Tmean, and Tmin having strong correlation. RR, RH, and Tmean were then considered for the PM in consideration of multicollinearity. Temporal and spatial analysis through GIS showed that cases of dengue were lowest during the month of May and highest during the month of August for the entire ten-year period. Both the PM developed were significant (𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙 ≤ 0.000) although TA has higher 𝐹 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡 and 𝑅 2 value (22.9; 37.9%) suggesting that TA is the more appropriate PM that can be utilized in order to provide necessary adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the incidence of dengue in the study area.

Language

English

LC Subject

Capstone

Location

University of the Philippines Rural High School

Document Type

Capstone

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