Markov Chain analysis of southwest monsoon rainfall time series data from 1951 to 2021 in areas with type I Philippine climate

Date

8-2023

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Applied Physics

College

College of Arts and Sciences (CAS)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Renebeth B. Payod

Co-adviser

Nelio C. Altoveros

Abstract

Time-series rainfall data of the southwest monsoon were analyzed using the Markov chain to determine the tendencies of rainfall states in the areas with a Type I Philippine climate. We analyzed 71 years of rainfall data from June to September 1951 to 2021. Based on the computed stationary distribution, time-series rainfall data from Type I climate zones tend to lie in state R1 (0 mm to 5 mm) with long-term transition probability from any possible states to state R1 of R1 = 0.551775 during the season. The long-term transition probability from any possible states to state R2 (6 mm to 25 mm) is R2 = 0.28182, about half of the value for state R1. Classified rainfall states R3 to R6 have negligible long-term transition probabilities. These values correspond to the long-term tendencies of the rainfall state for the entire study period. Thus, daily rainfall from June to September mostly took place between the threshold of 0 mm to 5 mm for the past 71 years. This implies that the bulk of rainfall in Type I climate is concentrated on certain days, leaving the majority of remaining days to have dry to light rain weather.

Language

English

LC Subject

Rain and rainfall -- Philippines -- Forecasting, Precipitation forecasting -- Statistical methods, Time-series analysis

Location

UPLB Main Library Special Collections Section (USCS)

Call Number

LG 993.5 2023 P51 D45

Document Type

Thesis

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