Time series analysis of the prices of selected high-value vegetable crops in the Philippines, 1990-2014

Date

6-2015

Degree

Doctor of Veterinary Medicine

College

College of Veterinary Medicine (CVM)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Prudenciano U. Gordoncillo

Abstract

The Philippines derives one of its main sources of income from the agricultural sector, which is prone to fluctuations caused by various factors. This study aimed to analyze the price variation of selected high-value crops, specifically onion and garlic, in the Philippines from 1990 to 2014. Secondary data from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) on the monthly and yearly prices, production and area harvested of onion and garlic in farmgate, wholesale, retail levels from 1990 to 2014 at national level were collected. Trend analysis was used to determine the general behavior of prices, production and area harvested of onion and garlic over time. Results showed that from 1990 to 2013, onion production and area harvested in the Philippines showed a fluctuating and generally increasing trend as evidenced by annual growth rate of 2.32% and 2.60%, respectively. In general, both types of onions (Red Bermuda and Yellow Granex) showed irregular and generally increasing trends in nominal prices. For garlic, findings showed a fluctuating and generally decreasing trend for production and area harvested as indicated by annual growth rate of -1.60% and -2.57%, respectively. In general, the nominal farmgate, wholesale and retail prices of garlic per year showed a generally increasing trend at 13.5%, 8.49% and 6.8%, respectively. Regression analyses showed that there were significant association between production and time, between area harvested and time, and between price and time for both commodities at 1% level of significance. Production, area of harvest, and nominal prices of onion and garlic showed variability through time. These can be explained by seasonality, natural calamities and consumption behavior of consumers. Based on the seasonal price indices, the farmers may schedule the most adequate time to produce or store the products for possible increase in income. For garlic, the average seasonal indices of farmgate price, wholesale price, and retail price of garlic were 99.04, 99.02, and 98.39, respectively. Farmgate price indices were high during the months of September to January and relatively low from February to August. For wholesale and retail prices, indices were high from October to February and low for the months of March to September. For onion red, the average seasonal indices of farmgate, wholesale, and retail price of onion red were 101, 100.55, and 99.35, respectively. The lowest farmgate price index equivalent to 75.47 was in September and highest in January given by 131.66. For wholesale price, the lowest index equivalent to 66.79 was in April and highest in December given by 132.44. The lowest retail price index equivalent to 75.21 was in April and highest in January given by 123.92. For onion white, the average seasonal indices of farmgate price, wholesale price, and retail price of onion red were 102, 100.44, and 98.08, respectively. The lowest farmgate price index equivalent to 6.73 was in June and highest in January given by 330.01. The lowest wholesale price index equivalent to 61.66 was in March and highest in December given by 125.96. Lastly, the lowest retail price index equivalent to 73.36 was in the month of April and highest in the month of December given by 118.75. The deseasonalized monthly price data from 1990 to 2014 were presented to depict the sequence over years. The cyclical patterns of onion and garlic increase and decrease approximately every 10-year period. These patterns may be used to provide assistance to producers that would help increase the amount of production in a more efficient schedule to achieve more stable prices to give them reasonable returns in their investments. Lastly, the forecasted prices from 2015 to 2024 at all price levels could be used to guide the farmers when and how much to produce in a given period of time. Hence, time series analysis could be used to provide evidence-based data on the formulation of policies for establishing price stability of both commodities to aid farmers in determining production and marketing options.

Language

English

Location

UPLB Main Library Special Collections Section (USCS)

Call Number

Thesis

Document Type

Thesis

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