Sectoral Analysis of the Philippine Stock Market Performance: A Post Outbreak Perspective

Date

6-2022

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Economics

College

College of Economics and Management (CEM)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Maria Luisa G. Valera

Committee Member

Luisito C. Abueg Maria Luisa G. Valera Maria Angeles O. Catelo Agham C. Cuevas

Abstract

This study provides a monthly sectoral analysis of the Philippine stock market from 2017 to 2021. It investigates the reaction of the major sectors under the said stock market to fear index, oil price, gold price, and inflation using ARDL. Furthermore, it shows the reaction of the fear index of investor to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines. All of the sectors experienced fluctuations during the first outbreak of COVID-19 in the Philippines. Despite the pandemic, the data show that the financial sector, services sector, holding firms sector, and property sector performed relatively more stable compared to the mining and oil sector and industrial sector. The results show that the investor fear index is negatively affected by the cumulative cases of deaths due to COVID-19.

The ARDL results show that the fear index has a positive implication on the short-run performances of all the sectors except for the mining and oil sector. On the other hand, financial sector and holding firms sector are negatively affected by the fear index in the long-run. Oil price has a positive impact on the long-run performance of the financial sector and industrial sector. The holding firms sector and mining and oil sector is positively affected by the increase in oil price in the short-run which is in contrast with the services sector. Gold price has a negative impact on the performance of the financial sector and industrial sector in the long-run. The performance of industrial sector and the mining and oil sector is positively affected by gold price while the services sector reacts in the opposite way in the short-run. Inflation has a negative impact on the performance of all the sectors except for the property sector which exhibits indifference towards the changes in inflation.

Language

English

LC Subject

Stock market, sectoral indices, fear index, oil price, gold price, inflation, COVID-19, cointegration test, ARDL

Location

UPLB College of Economics and Management (CEM)

Call Number

LG 993.5 2022 E2 C35

Document Type

Thesis

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