Stochastic approach on the estimation of storm surge heights using young's model for the development of storm surge contour maps for Manila Bay, Philippines

Date

6-2015

Degree

Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering

College

College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology (CEAT)

Adviser/Committee Chair

Jedidiah Joel C. Aguirre

Abstract

The passage of the Typhoon Pedring in 2011 caused colosal flooding and damages brought about by storm surges that affected numerous establishments and structures in Manila Bay. Due to its geographical location and attribute, it is posible for another storm surge event tp pose threat to the safety and livelihood of people, and damages to the stability of structures in the vicinity. In order to accurately measure the intensity of storm surge caused by typhoons in Manila Bay,this paper made use of Young's model in determining the surge heights and Gumbel reduced variate to estimate the return period of storm surge on the basis of the JMA best typhoon track data from 1977 to 2012. Contour maps with 10, 25, 50, and 100 return periods were produced through the kringing method of surfer v.11.0.642 on the basis of the estimated values. The storm heights from these maps range from 11 to 18.5 meters and the highest waves can be seen to be progressing on the upper left coastline of the bay particularly between 14.5º to14.75ºN and 120.55º to120.7ºE. The behavior of the surges in terms of their heights was explained by the concepts of extended fetch.Furthermore, the results show that the calculated values from the model overestimates the storm surge heights based on historical records of NOAH. However,the method/results can be used to overcome the shortcomingss of other models in consideringthe physical shape of the coast, and also to serve as a supplementary material for storm suge forecasts.

Language

English

Location

UPLB College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology (CEAT)

Call Number

LG 993.5 2015 E63 /Y36

Document Type

Thesis

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