The Philippine Agricultural Scientist
Publication Date
3-1-2026
Abstract
In the post-Rice Tariffication Law (RTL) period, several protectionist policies and state interventions have reemerged in the Philippine rice market. Using national-level time series data from January 2018 to April 2025, the study applies autoregressive distributed lag models to assess the impact of policy changes and external shocks on unmilled rice (palay) and rice prices. Results show that National Food Authority (NFA) rice stocks significantly affect palay farmgate prices and special rice retail prices. Vertical price transmission flows from farmgate to wholesale levels for special rice, and from wholesale to retail levels for well-milled and regular-milled rice. Major shocks, such as the RTL, India’s export tax on parboiled rice, and domestic price ceilings, have disrupted domestic price dynamics. Over time, higher NFA stocks depress both farmgate and special rice retail prices. Market power is concentrated among special rice wholesalers and well-milled rice retailers. These findings raise concerns about the proposed restoration of NFA’s regulatory functions, ineffective palay and rice stock management, and potential anti-competitive behavior within the rice supply chain.
Recommended Citation
Bathan, Bates
(2026)
"Vertical Price Transmission in the Philippine Rice Supply Chain: Responses to Shocks in the Post-Tariffication Period,"
The Philippine Agricultural Scientist: Vol. 109:
No.
2, Article 7.
Available at:
https://www.ukdr.uplb.edu.ph/pas/vol109/iss2/7